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The stakes
 

The calculation of the failure of a system or error in the context of a complex measure is a combination of probabilities for elementary that of the overall function represented.

In the case of a failure of the trees, the probability of failure is seen in the specialized tools as a deterministic value, but in practice it is even a random variable which seeks to publicize the dispersion and especially upper limit (most likely significant portion of the feared event).

In the case of complex measures, the distribution of overall measurement error is determined by simulation (Monte Carlo method) or an analytical approach that can be put in place for the laws of elementary simple distributions (Gaussian) propagating through the basic components (addition, average ...). These 2 methods are limited in practice because they can not be applied to systems consisting of multiple sources of errors or because they lead to increased global uncertainty, which leads to oversize the quality of the components to make implemented.

The formalism developed by RMS allows the calculation of the distribution of the overall failure rate based on distributions of probabilities of default basic components, even when some distributions are strongly non-Gaussian.

This formalism definitely more on the following topics:

The company RMS has submitted a draft paper on this topic at the congress Lambda Mu 2008.

 

Operating Surety

Determine the probability attached to the dispersion of the events feared calculated release of a fault tree


Cost design

Ensuring the performance and avoid excessive size of a system by determining precisely the uncertainty associated with its exit



Optimization results

For enterprises (banks, insurance) whose success is directly related to the accuracy of the uncertainties associated with a decision